Cumbria LEP Business Survey Results 2011 – Cumbria’s Many Small to Medium Sized Businesses Continue to Suffer with the Double-Dip Recession
The recently published results of the Cumbria LEP Business Survey for 2011 reveal a region struggling to come to terms with the mounting pressures of costs inflation shock, reduced consumer demand especially in the local marketplace and increases in unemployment.
The results from the latest longitudinal survey delivered by the Birmingham-based research company BMG mirror the downward trends of the 2010 Cumbria Business Survey especially amongst the majority of Small to Medium sized businesses which dominate the region’s economy.
The survey was commissioned by a consortium led and managed by the Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership as part of a LEP Capacity Fund project and is the latest study from 8 surveys initiated back in 1998.
A major outcome reveals a reduction in the overall numbers of people employed by private sector companies compared to the same period 12 months ago. The authors estimate around 8,000 fewer people are now employed by the private sector compared to 1 year ago (2010).
Whilst the report re-iterates that the survey methodology has had to rely upon stratified random sampling and hence must be considered estimated numbers, these employment figures appear to correlate with the rising unemployment statistics as reported by Job Centre Plus Nomisweb (1 in 10 claimants claiming unemployment benefit – now far larger than 12 months ago).
The overall view is of a Cumbrian market continuing to shrink with increasing staff costs, a reduced workforce and a tighter more restrictive financial environment.
Upward costs pressure are also anticipated by most Cumbrian businesses surveyed for the next 12 months which, combined with the gloomy outlook predicted by many of the economic experts (OECD, Markit, OBR), austerity measures and potential stagflation (growth stalls and inflation remains dangerously high) the next 12 months look especially difficult for the majority of Cumbria’s SMEs.
This, of course, is not an isolated report with many LEPs around the country conducting similar surveys amongst their business communities including the English Business Survey managed by the Department for Business Innovation and Skills. In many instances these reports have been followed up by further more in depth analysis of the particular problems faced by that region in order that the particular LEPs can improve engagement between the regulators and their businesses or are able to advocate changes to regulations and their applications.
However, small glimmers of hope can be found within the Cumbria report. For instance a small proportion of businesses managed to report “higher” trends over the last 12 months. The principal example regards increases in turnover and profit margins for those companies trading in the greater North West region and with the Rest of the UK rather than reliance upon the local shrinking market. Any opportunity observed by the LEP through this survey, however small, has to be worth the effort of communication to help inform future business planning for 2012/13.
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5 Comments
Stuart Jones on 1 May, 2012 at 8:30 am says:
I may be missing it but this survey doesn’t seem to be on the Cumbria LEP website http://www.cumbrialep.co.uk/
If not, why not? It’s an important document for all Cumbrian businesses.
Andrew on 1 May, 2012 at 8:59 am says:
Stuart,
You are quite correct, the report only appears on the archive pages of Cumbria County Council’s website. I do not know the reason for this as I agree with you that the information contained within is of interest to all businesses but especially SMEs as they have been sampled the most widely in the survey.
I am also unsure as to what the LEP intends to do with the outputs from the survey – as I mentioned in my Blog, the very least is to communicate the elements of greatest use and to seek further data regarding the issues and then to act upon them. It has been at least 2 months since the report was made available and we have not seen any action by the LEP in this regard. Andrew
Stuart Jones on 1 May, 2012 at 9:11 am says:
Thanks for confirming what I thought and I agree totally with your second paragraph.
I would also like to know why Cumbria LEP is using a Birmingham firm to conduct the survey. Isn’t there anyone in Cumbria?
Andrew on 1 May, 2012 at 9:24 am says:
My understanding is that BMG have conducted x8 surveys since 1998 on behalf of Cumbria County Council and hence had the advantage of being able to benchmark the data with previous years’ data (although we have not seen any evidence of this as yet!)
Thanks for the leading question! Wildwood is a market research agency based in Cumbria and we did in fact initially pitch for this piece of work. Our team are certainly able and willing to conduct any form of primary research asked of us- especially Cumbria-based projects.
Stuart Jones on 1 May, 2012 at 11:00 am says:
Mind you, Cumbria LEP seem experts in choosing out of the area consultants as well! http://genecon.co.uk/news-comments/cumbria-lep-growing-places-fund.aspx